亨利官网官网_中国2018年首季经济亮了 这些关键数据你看懂了吗?

缅甸玉和国际现场

2019-12-14 00:37:20

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(原标题:中国首季经济亮了 这些关键数据你看懂了吗?)

中国经济首季实现开门红,几组数据颇有看点。

国内生产总值同比增长6.8%,高于全年6.5%左右的目标;

进出口额相抵,顺差3262亿元,比上年同期收窄21.8%

房地产开发投资同比增长10.4%,创下三年以来新高。

这些数据有何含义?又反映了中国经济的哪些走势?中新社国是论坛——2018一季度经济形势分析会给出了答案。

中国2018年首季经济亮了 这些关键数据你看懂了吗?侯雨彤制图

2018年首季开局亮眼

国家统计局数据显示,2018一季度国内生产总值198783亿元,同比增长6.8%,高于全年6.5%左右的目标。

中国人民大学副校长、国家发展与战略研究院执行院长刘元春分析,这得益于中国出口改善、投资坚实和消费旺盛。具体来说,外部环境的改善,去年稳增长的惯性延续以及贷款结构的改善都是首季经济形势“开局不错”的重要原因。

此外,刘元春还指出,房地投资出现反弹也是经济表现好的一个原因,“这可能与大家的预期不太一样”

国家统计局数据显示,一季度全国房地产开发投资21291亿元,同比增长10.4%。增速不仅超过市场预期,且创下三年以来新高。与投资相对,全国商品房销售面积增长3.6%,销售额增长10.4%。

住房和城乡建设部住房政策专家委员会副主任顾云昌分析,房地产投资增长加快有两个原因:第一是地价的上升;第二是去年买的土地在今年进入开发阶段,导致投资增速加快。

至于未来的房地产市场怎么走,顾云昌将其形象的比喻为“舞龙式”,其特点是幅度和频率不同。2017年一二线城市基本呈下行态势(销售面积和销售额),三四线城市处于去库存阶段呈上行趋势。“不同城市、不同阶段,有不同幅度、起落”,楼市不能简单一概而论。

除了房地产市场表现积极,一季度工业生产总体稳定、服务业增长较快、民间投资增速加快、市场销售持续活跃。

窥一貌而知全局,透过一季度经济数据,刘元春判断,2018全年经济将是“前高后低”的态势。

贸易摩擦冲击经济稳定?

中美贸易摩擦持续至今,对中国经济影响有多大,一直是社会普遍的关注的问题。一季度经济数据显示,进出口额相抵,顺差3262亿元,比上年同期收窄21.8%。3月份,出口增速由正转负,贸易账自去年2月以来首次呈现逆差。

国家统计局国民经济综合统计司司长、新闻发言人邢志宏在发布会上表示,中国从来不刻意追求贸易顺差,进口加快反映内需强劲增长,这种平衡有利于国内经济发展。

中国贸促会研究院国际贸易研究部主任赵萍认为,这表明中国正通过扩大进口承担更多大国责任,让世界分享中国发展红利。中国贸易顺差收窄是大势所趋,但收窄幅度不会像一季度这么大,而是会略微收窄。

尽管如此,赵萍对中国外贸增长仍充满信心,她指出,世界格局正在发生变化,中美贸易之间还存在不确定性,东方不亮西方亮,在全球经济增长背景下,中国外贸还会持续增长。

国务院发展研究中心对外经济研究部第一研究室主任胡江云评价中美贸易摩擦认为,只是影响小部分,不会有大变化。

这一点,在冶金工业规划研究院总设计师高升的演讲中得到了印证。

他总结,综合直接进口、转口贸易和间接出口三方面,中国出口到美国的钢材只有1600万吨,假如加征关税影响出口50%,那么这部分只有800万吨,只占到中国钢产量的1.05%。

换言之,美国对中国商品加征关税,一方面不能真正遏制中国发展,另一方面也会影响美国国内企业的竞争力和创新力。

经济发展还需迈过几道坎

尽管2018首季取得开门红,但转向高质量发展,中国仍需迈过几道坎。

刘元春指出,从深层次的结构性问题来看,中国很多问题还没有得到根本性的解决。一是从不同的指标来看,宏观杠杆率并没有明显的回稳迹象;二是企业财务指标改善主要体现在国有企业上,且没有持续改善的态势;三是新动能延续去年态势,但局部出现走弱现象。

此外,他还提到地方政府、金融控股企业等存在的高债务问题,认为这是金融防风险需要重点关注的领域和问题。

中国银行首席研究员宗良分析,从金融形势上来看,中国的货币信贷政策应当不松不紧,更趋均衡。“松了不行,中国M2总量很大,再增加可能有压力;紧了也不行,紧得太多会导致利率上行,对实体经济不利。”

面对美国举起的“贸易大棒”,赵萍认为,未来还是要继续优化外贸结构,比如增加对“一带一路”沿线国家的出口,减少贸易对单一市场的倚重,增加汽车、医疗设备、电器产品的出口等。高升则指出,在钢铁行业去产能同时,要做到“5G”:产品好、服务好、质量好、规模好、价格好。

在迈向高质量发展的路上,经济增长速度已经不是第一重要的,但如何实现从高速度到高质量的转换,中国显然还需迈过几道坎。

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